Concept

Accepting uncertainty

Even with every fact, some things can't be known for sure. Plan for that instead of pretending.

What it is

Some values don’t sit still. Seth Klarman points out that even if you gathered every possible fact about a business, its true value would still be uncertain, because it moves with credit, interest rates, and a hundred other things. So the question changes from “how do I get certain?” to “how do I act well without certainty?”

How it shows up for me

I learned it with money, the hard way. Today I’d rather build a margin for being wrong than spend another week pretending a spreadsheet can tell me the future.

It helps outside money too. Parenting, work, health: most of the important stuff is uncertain all the way down.

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