What it is
If you want to be right more often, remove assumptions that aren’t necessary. That’s Occam’s razor: prefer the simplest explanation that fits. For each assumption, ask, “does this really need to be here?”, and look for evidence that it should stay.
Daniel Kahneman’s conjunction fallacy shows why. We tend to think two things happening together is more likely than one of them alone, because the detailed story feels more real. It’s always less likely. Keep it simple, stupid.
How it shows up for me
In software, every dependency is a future bug. In life, every extra “and then they’ll probably…” is a story I’m telling myself. I try to cut both.
Go next
- Efficiency or laziness?
- Physics envy, the opposite mistake.
- Efficiency