What it is
The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that an outcome that’s come up less often than expected is now more likely. For independent events, like coin tosses or a fair lottery machine, the past doesn’t change the next result. The chance of a coin landing heads one more time is always one in two, however long the streak.
The famous case: at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, the ball landed on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting that red was due.
How it shows up for me
I once asked whether, with every historical lottery record, some math could find a pattern. For a fair draw, no. The machine doesn’t remember. It’s a good reminder for anything where I feel I’m “owed” a win.