Concept

Prediction traps

Taking market forecasts seriously slowly turns careful people into speculators.

What it is

Benjamin Graham warned that most investors know daily market predictions are worthless, and still take them seriously, assuming a professional must know better than they do. The habit slowly turns careful investors into speculators. In a long bull market, when it’s easy to make money by swimming with the tide, people drop the fundamentals for the thrill of “beating the market,” forgetting that they themselves are the market.

How it shows up for me

I’ve been tempted, especially when everyone around me seemed to be getting rich. What protects me is boring: an emergency fund, regular contributions, and not checking.

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