What it is
In 1894, physicist Albert Michelson declared that the important laws of physics had all been discovered. Within years came quantum mechanics and relativity.
Following Karl Popper, David Deutsch separates prediction, conclusions drawn from good explanations, from prophecy, claiming to know what can’t yet be known. No good explanation can predict the outcome of something that will be significantly shaped by knowledge nobody has created yet.
How it shows up for me
Most confident talk about the future of AI, work or my own life is prophecy dressed as prediction. I try to say which one I’m doing.